Orlando Real Estate Outlook: What the State of Real Estate Numbers Say Now
The Orlando Regional REALTOR Association’s State of Real Estate event in April laid out a market that kept growing while much of the country stalled. Months later, the newest sales reports, tax roll figures and Census estimates show which of those signals held up and which ones deserve a closer read.
Downtown Orlando sits at the center of an Orange County tax roll where residential value now outweighs commercial.
Image: Storyblocks
What to Know
Three numbers from the State of Real Estate event
The April event set the tone for 2026. Here is how its headline figures look now.
Sales grew when the nation did not. February closings across the region rose 2.8% year over year, and April through August ran about 2.5% ahead of 2025.
Homes now outweigh commercial. Residential property makes up about $176.9 billion of Orange County’s roughly $331 billion tax roll, a first for the county.
Growth is steady, not frantic. The metro added 37,690 residents in the year ending July 2025 and 284,300 since the 2020 Census.
The Orlando real estate outlook for late 2026 is steady growth, not a boom or a slide. Regional home sales have outpaced the national trend since spring, Orange County’s residential tax roll has passed commercial for the first time at about $176.9 billion, and population growth continues, though at a slower pace than in 2023 and 2024.
Jared Jones said in his recap that the event numbers matched what he and his agents had been seeing in day-to-day transactions across Central Florida: buyers still showing up, sellers still closing, and a regional economy that kept adding people and jobs. What follows checks each headline against the most recent official data.
What did the State of Real Estate event say about the Orlando real estate outlook?
The core message was that Orlando is outperforming the country. Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, pointed to a 2.8% year-over-year increase in February home sales across the region at a time when national sales were flat to slightly negative. The Orlando Regional REALTOR Association data backs that up: 1,888 closings in February 2026 versus 1,837 a year earlier.
Yun also cautioned that prices were lower than in 2025. The average sale price across the region had slipped by about $15,000, roughly 3.2%, even as transaction counts rose. That pairing of more sales and flatter prices is the clearest summary of the Orlando market this year, and it lines up with the first quarter market update published in May.
Are Orlando home sales still beating the national trend?
Mostly, yes. Starting with April, the association expanded its monthly reports to cover Orange, Osceola, Lake, Seminole and Volusia counties and restated 2025 on the same basis. Adding up those apples-to-apples months, April through August 2026 produced 13,374 closings compared with 13,048 in the same stretch of 2025, a gain of about 2.5%.
The monthly pattern was uneven. June and July ran well ahead of last year, while April trailed and August landed almost even. Nationally, existing-home sales have recovered to a 1.6% year-to-date gain through August, so the gap has narrowed since spring. Orlando is still slightly ahead, just not by a wide margin. For a deeper look at why talk of a crash has not matched the data, see the breakdown of whether the Orlando housing market is headed for a crash.
What does the $176.9 billion residential tax roll mean for Orange County?
Speaking at the event, Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado said the county’s tax roll climbed from $228 billion in 2021 to about $331 billion in 2025. Of that total, about $176.9 billion is residential, and this is the first year residential value has surpassed commercial. The Orange County Property Appraiser publishes the underlying roll data and parcel records.
For homeowners, the milestone is a reminder that more of the county’s value base now sits in houses, condos and townhomes than in hotels, offices and retail. It also puts property taxes in the spotlight. Homesteaded properties are protected by Florida’s Save Our Homes cap, which limits annual assessed value increases to 3% or the change in the Consumer Price Index, whichever is lower, while non-homestead property is capped at 10% for non-school taxes. Voters will weigh further changes this November, covered in the recap of Florida Amendment 3 and other September housing news.
The State of Real Estate numbers, updated
Event figures checked against the latest association, property appraiser and Census data.
How fast is Orlando’s population growing in 2026?
Figures shared at the event put regional growth at roughly 1,200 new residents a week. The most recent Census estimates, summarized by the Orlando Economic Partnership, show a more measured pace: 37,690 new residents in the year ending July 1, 2025, or about 725 a week, for a growth rate of 1.3% compared with 0.8% for Florida and 0.5% for the U.S.
The longer view is stronger. The metro has added 284,300 residents since the 2020 Census, which works out to a little over 1,000 a week. International migration drove 82% of the 2025 gain, and most domestic movers within the region headed to Lake and Osceola counties. That shift is visible on the map of Orlando areas growing the fastest in 2026 and in projects such as NeoCity in Osceola County.
Is Orlando’s economy really moving beyond tourism?
Partly. Tourism remains the region’s primary economic driver, and speakers at the event expected international visits to keep growing in 2026. At the same time, the region has been adding higher-wage work in technology, health care, finance and professional services. Orlando added 20,600 jobs in the 12 months ending June 2026, as covered in the Q3 2026 Orlando job growth report, and investments like the CoreSite data center expansion point the same direction.
On the economic outlook, Yun projected sluggish national growth of about 1% this year and said Orlando could grow roughly twice as fast as the country. Treat that as a forecast, not a guarantee. The useful takeaway for buyers and sellers is that local job and population gains have given the Orlando housing market a firmer floor than many Sun Belt metros.
What does the Orlando real estate outlook mean for buyers and sellers right now?
For buyers, the market offers more room than it did a few years ago. Supply reached 4.9 months in August, homes averaged 64 days on market, and the association’s members reported more seller concessions than in 2025. For sellers, demand is real but selective: the August median of $400,676 sat just under last year’s $403,222, so pricing to the current comps matters more than pricing to a headline.
Relocating buyers can start with the guide to moving to Orlando in 2026, which covers real costs and commute tradeoffs. For a visual tour of how different parts of the metro compare at higher price points, Jared’s map-based walkthrough of Orlando’s 5 quadrants is a useful companion.
A light real estate read
The residential tax roll milestone is an Orange County story, but the growth behind it is spreading outward. Census data shows Orange and Seminole counties leaning on international arrivals and natural growth, while Lake and Osceola captured about 75% of the region’s net migration in 2025. Inside Orange County, that tends to show up as steady resale demand in established areas and more competition from builders on the edges.
West Orange is a good example. The Winter Garden and Horizon West real estate hub and the roundup of new construction coming to Winter Garden show how builder incentives and resale pricing interact, a dynamic Jared also walks through in his Winter Garden development update. To the south, ZIP codes 32824, 32837 and 32829 have moved in different directions within the same year, as the South Orlando housing market report explains. The regional median tells one story, while individual ZIP codes and price bands can tell another.
The Takeaway
The State of Real Estate event called Orlando a market in a league of its own, and the data since then mostly agrees. Sales are running about 2.5% ahead of last year, residential property now carries more of Orange County’s value than commercial, and the metro keeps adding residents.
The details are more nuanced than the headline. Population growth has slowed from its 2024 peak, national sales have narrowed the gap, and prices are flat rather than rising. Watch the fall sales reports, the November ballot on property taxes and the next Census release for the next signals.
FAQ
What is the Orlando real estate outlook for the rest of 2026?
The Orlando real estate outlook is steady rather than explosive. Closed sales from April through August 2026 ran about 2.5% ahead of the same months of 2025, the median price has held near $400,000, and supply sat at 4.9 months in August, still below the 6 months that marks a balanced market.
Did Orlando home sales really rise while the rest of the country slowed?
Yes. At the State of Real Estate event in April 2026, National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun pointed to a 2.8% year-over-year gain in February sales across the Orlando region while the national figure was flat to slightly negative. National sales have since improved to a 1.6% year-to-date gain through August.
What does it mean that Orange County’s residential tax roll passed commercial?
Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado reported that residential property now accounts for about $176.9 billion of the county’s roughly $331 billion tax roll, the first year residential value has topped commercial. It signals how much of the county’s value base now sits in homes rather than offices, hotels and retail.
How many people are moving to the Orlando area each week?
Figures shared at the event put regional growth at roughly 1,200 people a week. The latest Census estimates show the Orlando metro added 37,690 residents in the year ending July 1, 2025, about 725 a week, and 284,300 since the 2020 Census, which averages a little over 1,000 a week.
Are Orlando home prices going up or down in 2026?
Mostly sideways. The regional median was $400,676 in August 2026 compared with $403,222 a year earlier, while single-family homes held near $436,000. Earlier in the year the average sale price ran about $15,000 below 2025, so pricing and condition matter more than a rising tide.
External Links & Related Reading
These references cover the event reporting, official market data and related analysis.
- Jared Jones Team on Instagram: State of Real Estate recap
- GrowthSpotter: 10 things we learned at ORRA’s State of Real Estate
- Orlando Regional REALTOR Association: Housing Market Narrative
- Orlando Economic Partnership: Orlando Population Growth Again Among Highest in Nation
- National Association of Realtors: Research and Statistics
- Orange County Property Appraiser
- Orlando Added 20,600 Jobs in a Year: Q3 2026 Market Insights
- Orlando Housing Market 2026: First Quarter Update
Planning a move in Central Florida?
Regional numbers set the backdrop, but your price, timing and ZIP code decide the outcome. Call 407-706-5000 or email info@jaredjones.com for a local read on your home or your search.