Orlando Housing Market | Is It Cooling Down or Just Shifting?

Is Orlando’s Housing Market Cooling Down or Just Shifting? Here’s What You Need to Know

July 15, 2025

Story Highlights:

• Interest rates spiked above 7% but have settled around 6.86%, creating uncertainty for buyers and cooling summer activity.
•Zillow is banning private listings that aren’t first shared on the MLS, aiming to level the playing field for buyers and sellers.
• A massive lagoon-style residential community is coming to St. Cloud with nearly 3,000 homes, setting a new standard for amenitized living in Central Florida.
• Inventory is slowly rising, especially in newer, high-growth areas, while established neighborhoods remain tight and competitive.
• Buyer activity is picking up, but about 10% of sellers are pulling listings early—signaling pricing misalignment or shifting market expectations.

Is Orlando’s Summer Housing Market Heating Up or Cooling Down?

If you’ve been watching the Orlando real estate market this summer, you might be feeling a little whiplash. Interest rates are swinging, affordability is getting tougher, and now we’re hearing about hidden listings? It’s a lot to take in. So what’s really going on during this big summer moving season in Central Florida? Is the market struggling or just shifting gears?

Let’s unpack everything, from Zillow’s controversial new listing policy to a massive new lagoon-style community coming to St. Cloud. Whether you’re buying or selling, this is your pulse check on Orlando real estate right now.

Are Interest Rates Slowing Down Buyer Demand?

Buyers have been navigating one of the most unpredictable interest rate environments we’ve seen in a while. Just last week, the 30-year fixed rate shot up from around 6.6 percent to over 7 percent almost overnight. That’s enough to make even serious buyers take a step back.

The good news? Rates have already pulled back a bit and are sitting around 6.86 percent. It’s a slight reprieve, but when you factor in already high home prices and the rising cost of living, it’s still a tough market for buyers. The result? Less urgency, more cautious shoppers, and a noticeable chill on what should be the hottest part of the real estate calendar.

Is Zillow Really Cracking Down on Hidden Listings?

Zillow has officially announced that starting May 1st, it will ban any property from its site that begins its life as a private or “pocket” listing. That means if a home is first marketed only to a select group—say, an internal brokerage network like Compass—it won’t be allowed on Zillow afterward.

This move directly targets big brokerages that have been quietly testing ways to keep listings within their own circles before going public. Zillow argues this limits exposure and ultimately hurts sellers who could have gotten higher offers if their home had gone to the full market first.

This policy is about creating a level playing field. Sellers get the widest reach. Buyers get fair access. And brokerages? Well, they’ll need to adjust.

What’s the Deal with the New Lagoon Community in St. Cloud?

A brand-new master-planned community is coming to St. Cloud, and it’s centered around something you don’t normally find in Central Florida neighborhoods—a massive lagoon. We’re talking 20 acres dedicated to lagoon amenities. Think crystal-clear blue waters, beach-style living, and year-round resort vibes.

This isn’t a vacation rental community either. It’s designed for full-time residents who want a tropical lifestyle without leaving home. The development will include nearly 3,000 homes, a K through 8 charter school, and high-end features that rival what you’d find at a resort.

Located just outside East Lake Toho, near Cross Prairie and southwest of Downtown St. Cloud, this development marks a major transformation for the area. Builders like DRB Homes, Lennar, and D.R. Horton are already locked in to bring the project to life.

If you’ve heard of Murata near San Antonio, you’ll recognize the vision. The same developer is behind both projects, and their goal is clear: combine the best of luxury amenities with livable, everyday communities.

What’s Happening with Home Prices and Inventory in Orlando?

Right now, the Orlando housing market is showing signs of balance. Active inventory has nudged up slightly overall. Homes priced under $500,000 have decreased a bit, while those over $500,000 have increased. That shift hints at a small move toward higher-end activity.

One detail worth watching is how much of the inventory is vacant. Nearly half of the homes on the market right now have no one living in them. That’s a big deal and something we’ll be tracking all summer.

Sales activity is also showing life. The number of homes sold within the past 30 days increased from the previous week, and pending sales rose as well. This caused a drop in months of supply, which means the market shifted slightly in buyers’ favor. We’re now sitting around 3.89 months of supply, just under the line that defines a balanced market.

Why Are Some Parts of Orlando More Competitive Than Others?

The big story in Central Florida is the split between older, established communities and new, fast-growing areas.

In places like Downtown Orlando and other long-standing neighborhoods, inventory remains tight. Some areas are running just two months of supply, which keeps prices high and competition fierce. But in high-growth suburbs, where new construction has surged over the last five years, supply levels are closer to four months.

That extra inventory gives buyers more options and wiggle room to negotiate, especially when builders are offering huge incentives to sweeten the deal. In many of these communities, builders are throwing $40,000 or more in perks on homes priced under $400,000.

Is Florida's Inventory Finally Catching Up to Demand?

Since the pandemic, the national housing story has focused on low inventory. But that narrative is starting to shift—especially in the South. States like Florida, Texas, and Georgia are seeing inventory levels rise, largely thanks to years of rapid population growth and aggressive homebuilding.

New data suggests that by the end of 2025, the country could be back to pre-pandemic income and inventory norms. And in places like Central Florida, we’re already ahead of the curve.

Should You Buy or Sell in Orlando Right Now?

That depends on your goals, but here’s the truth: the market is moving. It’s not crashing. It’s not booming. It’s adjusting.

If you’re buying, pay attention to builder incentives, negotiate hard, and watch interest rates. If you’re selling, pricing your home right is everything. Listings that miss the mark are sitting longer—or disappearing altogether.

And if you’re somewhere in between, keep watching the trends. Inventory is rising, but not everywhere. Rates are volatile, but not unpredictable. And Central Florida? It’s still one of the most dynamic real estate markets in the country.

Why Choose Jared Jones?

As a top real estate agent with nearly 4,000 homes sold and over 20 years of experience in the Florida real estate market, I have the expertise needed to help you navigate today’s evolving landscape. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, my deep understanding of market trends and personalized approach will provide you with the insights and strategies required for success.

Best Realtor in Orlando - Reach Out Today!

If you’re ready to make a move in Florida’s real estate market, don’t hesitate to reach out. Contact Jared Jones at 407-706-5000 (call or text) or email info@jaredjones.com for professional guidance and personalized service that will help you achieve your real estate goals.