Key Points:
- • Orlando mortgage rates jumped over 7%, slashing buyer purchasing power by $33,000 and making homes less affordable.
- • Winter Garden faces record-high unsold inventory as Orlando tops U.S. cities in canceled home contracts due to rising property taxes and insurance costs.
- • Cash home sales in Winter Garden dropped to 18.4%, increasing dependence on mortgage-financed buyers affected by high rates.
- • Home prices and sales volume in Winter Garden declined, signaling reduced buyer demand in 2025.
- • With a 3.2-month housing supply, the Orlando market is more balanced, but sellers are keeping prices conservative due to interest rate pressures.
Winter Garden Market Trends, Rising Rates & Buyer Insights
The Orlando, Florida housing market is a mixed bag of headlines right now. You have buyers wrestling with affordability, you have massive interest rate volatility where they slammed down to 6.25% a month ago. Today, we find ourselves at over 7% again.
The Orlando market itself made headlines just two short months ago with leading the nation in a massive amount of contract cancellations as buyers got cold feet when they finally got the bill to look at all the different costs that come with buying a house in the central Florida marketplace, such as property tax increases and mounting insurance costs to own a home here. And it’s with that great passion that I come and bring data analysis on specific marketplaces. Today, we’re talking about a charming and vibrant market known as Winter Garden, Florida, a marketplace that stays insanely popular year round, known for its historic downtown vibe, its convenience to the downtown Orlando marketplace, its blend of boutiques, local restaurants, and outdoor spaces such as the West Orange Trail makes it a very popular place for people looking to move to the area.
We have top rated schools and engaging community events. And as you probably know, we’re very convenient to the happiest place on earth. When I’m done with this video, you’re gonna know exactly what to expect in the winter of 2024, as well as what’s around the corner moving into 2025 so that you can make good decisions whether you’re looking to buy or sell in this housing market.
All right, the first place I wanna take you is Mortgage News Daily. We’re gonna look at the interest rate. I know everybody glazes over and checks out as soon as I bring up interest rates.
You gotta pay attention. There’s a lot of things people are talking about right now, really two topics when they say, hey, you know what? What’s going on with the housing market? Things are messed up, or things are not gonna be okay until X happens. Those two topics right now that people are mentioning need to come to pass to help out housing is the election cycle and number two, interest rates.
So the first thing let’s talk about is interest rates. So look at this. This is August 1st over here on the side.
We’re at 6.62%. Now you gotta understand, August, not great numbers. At high 6% interest rates, housing market didn’t like it. Buyer’s affordability is based heavily on what they’re getting from the mortgage banker.
Here’s the deal. You just saw an article probably in the past week or two that says buyers just lost $33,000 of purchasing power in the last two weeks alone. So the reality is interest rates spike and buyers can’t offer sellers as much as they could when the interest rate is down.
So here’s the thing. There was a little sweet spot right here from September 9th, 10th, 11th, all the way till about October 2nd. And then look what happens as we enter the month we’re in.
It absolutely shoots off the charts. It goes from about 6.25, 6.26% where it had been that way for about 15 days where there was a little bit of a reprieve. And honestly, I feel like we did see in the data, and you’re gonna show you that today, there’s some activity.
There’s some things hopping when the rate dropped. But as quickly as that rate climbed again, and it’s going north, and people are scratching their heads because didn’t it fall just now, Jared, because the Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate? Jerome Powell cut the rate. We were waiting for the pivot.
The pivot’s supposed to save us all and have the housing market heat up again. And lo and behold, he dropped it and the market went the opposite direction. And the reason the mortgage rates were dropping before Powell cut the rate, you’ll see 45 days out, the market was already pricing in him dropping that rate.
Lo and behold, it comes back out the other side and shoots north. Now, the greater narrative of why this is happening, because everybody’s like, Jared, why is the 30-year fixed blowing up when they just cut the central banking rate? Because this is tied closely and tethers with the 10-year bond yield, okay? So mortgage interest rates are, yes, 30-year rates, but they’re more tied to long-term yields of the 10-year bond and the treasury yields are climbing. Why are they climbing? Bond investors are scared.
We’re selling these bonds and essentially this is how we fund our government because our government’s borrowing a lot of money. People don’t believe that we’ve got enough austerity in government. DC’s got a blank check and borrowing like crazy and this is not a left or right wing thing.
I didn’t say any policymaker, I didn’t say a party, so don’t get complained in the comments. If you don’t like it, write your congressperson, but this is what’s happening. The 30-year rate is getting blasted because our government is spending a lot of money and people are scared.
So when they don’t wanna buy our IOUs, which is what a treasury note is, then all of a sudden your yields climb in order for them to sell those yields, right? They gotta sell those bonds and essentially our bond buyers are backing away. You’re smarter than me if you know the reasons on that, so you can feel that out in the comments. But here’s the thing we’re gonna talk about today.
The Orlando, Florida housing market is a mixed bag of headlines right now. You have buyers wrestling with affordability, you have massive interest rate volatility where they slammed down to 6.25% a month ago. Today, we find ourselves at over 7% again.
The Orlando market itself made headlines just two short months ago with leading the nation in a massive amount of contract cancellations as buyers got cold feet when they finally got the bill to look at all the different costs that come with buying a house in the central Florida marketplace, such as property tax increases and mounting insurance costs to own a home here. And it’s with that great passion that I come and bring data analysis on specific marketplaces. Today, we’re talking about a charming and vibrant market known as Winter Garden, Florida, a marketplace that stays insanely popular year round, known for its historic downtown vibe, its convenience to the downtown Orlando marketplace, its blend of boutiques, local restaurants, and outdoor spaces such as the West Orange Trail makes it a very popular place for people looking to move to the area.
We have top rated schools and engaging community events. And as you probably know, we’re very convenient to the happiest place on earth. When I’m done with this video, you’re gonna know exactly what to expect in the winter of 2024, as well as what’s around the corner moving into 2025 so that you can make good decisions whether you’re looking to buy or sell in this housing market.
All right, the first place I wanna take you is Mortgage News Daily. We’re gonna look at the interest rate. I know everybody glazes over and checks out as soon as I bring up interest rates.
You gotta pay attention. There’s a lot of things people are talking about right now, really two topics when they say, hey, you know what? What’s going on with the housing market? Things are messed up, or things are not gonna be okay until X happens. Those two topics right now that people are mentioning need to come to pass to help out housing is the election cycle and number two, interest rates.
So the first thing let’s talk about is interest rates. So look at this. This is August 1st over here on the side.
We’re at 6.62%. Now you gotta understand, August, not great numbers. At high 6% interest rates, housing market didn’t like it. Buyer’s affordability is based heavily on what they’re getting from the mortgage banker.
Here’s the deal. You just saw an article probably in the past week or two that says buyers just lost $33,000 of purchasing power in the last two weeks alone. So the reality is interest rates spike and buyers can’t offer sellers as much as they could when the interest rate is down.
So here’s the thing. There was a little sweet spot right here from September 9th, 10th, 11th, all the way till about October 2nd. And then look what happens as we enter the month we’re in.
It absolutely shoots off the charts. It goes from about 6.25, 6.26% where it had been that way for about 15 days where there was a little bit of a reprieve. And honestly, I feel like we did see in the data, and you’re gonna show you that today, there’s some activity.
There’s some things hopping when the rate dropped. But as quickly as that rate climbed again, and it’s going north, and people are scratching their heads because didn’t it fall just now, Jared, because the Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate? Jerome Powell cut the rate. We were waiting for the pivot.
The pivot’s supposed to save us all and have the housing market heat up again. And lo and behold, he dropped it and the market went the opposite direction. And the reason the mortgage rates were dropping before Powell cut the rate, you’ll see 45 days out, the market was already pricing in him dropping that rate.
Lo and behold, it comes back out the other side and shoots north. Now, the greater narrative of why this is happening, because everybody’s like, Jared, why is the 30-year fixed blowing up when they just cut the central banking rate? Because this is tied closely and tethers with the 10-year bond yield, okay? So mortgage interest rates are, yes, 30-year rates, but they’re more tied to long-term yields of the 10-year bond and the treasury yields are climbing. Why are they climbing? Bond investors are scared.
We’re selling these bonds and essentially this is how we fund our government because our government’s borrowing a lot of money. People don’t believe that we’ve got enough austerity in government. DC’s got a blank check and borrowing like crazy and this is not a left or right wing thing.
I didn’t say any policymaker, I didn’t say a party, so don’t get complained in the comments. If you don’t like it, write your congressperson, but this is what’s happening. The 30-year rate is getting blasted because our government is spending a lot of money and people are scared.
So when they don’t wanna buy our IOUs, which is what a treasury note is, then all of a sudden your yields climb in order for them to sell those yields, right? They gotta sell those bonds and essentially our bond buyers are backing away. You’re smarter than me if you know the reasons on that, so you can feel that out in the comments. But here’s the thing we’re gonna talk about today.
We are going to be looking at data. The data I’m gonna show you today is the most recent data on the planet to tell you how Winter Garden is doing right now. This is a back-end portal access to the Florida Association of Realtors.
They take all the data from 34787. I’m gonna show you exactly what they have to say about the marketplace, so you have a great understanding of it. But understand on the backdrop of what I’m gonna show you, this activity happened when mortgage money was way cheaper than it is right now.
What do you mean, Jared? That means that what you feel in the market as you’re watching this, this period of data that you’re seeing probably was a different climate than where we are because it’s a lot more expensive now. So if you’re in here and you’re looking at this and you’re like, Jared, Jared said the market was raging this past month. Yeah, and it went out as fast as it came because the market feels way different as we’re now in November.
The first chart I’m gonna show you is new listings, okay? You’re gonna see in a moment that we have record high levels of unsold homes in Winter Garden. Where is that coming from, okay? Is that because buyers are inactive? They’re slow, so the inventory that’s sitting there is piled high because the buyers are just not picking it off? Or is it a deluge of sellers? Well, the first question we wanna look at is new listing volume. Are sellers bringing a monumental amount of inventory to the market? Now, look at this.
You see this little curve right here? That’s 2023, to the end of the year. Every year, you usually see any market in Orlando, it has this bowing effect towards the middle and it comes back down. You can see that in 24, visually on the chart, that clearly there was an elevated number of sellers in 24 versus 23.
In fact, if you look at the chart down here, year over year, 14% in August, more inventory than a prior year. So almost 200 homes there. Look at May and April, 217, 218 listings.
You’d say, Jared, what does it matter? Well, if you look across history, this in 21 was where the year spiked. The year in 21 was high activity and it leveled up at 220, 224, something like that. The prior year before that, same thing, prior before that.
So last year, we didn’t even reach, in the entire year, 2023, look at this, the whole year never even reached 200 units hitting market one single time. And now you have multiple months where you’re at or over that level. So we have a good bit more inventory hitting the market this year than last.
It’s still not as high as prior years. Jared, why is that the case? Because home sellers don’t like to sell in the face of high interest rates. So the interest rate problem is not affecting buyers coming to market, but it’s also affecting homeowners who would become buyers if they were to put their house in the market and get out, and they call this the golden handcuffs.
That person’s gonna stay in their home, be their handcuff to it, because of the 3 1⁄2, 4% 30-year fix they have, maybe lower than that, is keeping them from moving across the street. Now, two things would break that loose. Number one, if the interest rates themselves were to change.
And number two, if you start to see rapid depreciation, that tends to force people to sell. Because I’m thinking, wow, this is not good, I’m gonna sell in a year anyways, I might as well get out now. You see more inventory hitting the streets if you see a depressor in price, either of those two factors would affect the marketplace.
But take a look at this, you have elevated listings this year, are they selling? Active unsold inventory in Winter Garden is at 413 units. Look at this, we haven’t seen 413 units, you have to go all the way back to about 2016 to find 418 units. And the month prior, so last month on data, we were at 440 months.
So there’s a little bit of a pullback. So we went from 440 units down to 413 units. You can see that all year, the number of unsold homes, the buyer demand has not met what’s coming to the market.
So I told you, we have a little bit of a run up in activity in sellers, buyers are not absorbing the pace that they’re coming to market. There’s a lot left unsold on the balance of what’s hitting the market. And look, it happened last year the same way.
So we had the market run up in 23, you have it even higher in 24. And again, you have to understand in the scheme of things, how bad is this? Well, you have to understand too, all these years, what’s been happening through Horizon West. Tons of construction, tons of new units.
So every time I have to report on 34787, I have to tell people watching this, this ain’t Longwood folks. This isn’t a place that was developed 20 years ago and all the infill lots are filled. This is elevated inventory matching years in the past.
Yes, is that great for sellers? Not great. Is it a more of a balanced market? It sure is. But you have to understand, there’s way more population here.
There’s way more homes than there was back here. So these amount of listings, we have 440 or 415 homes on the market. As a percentage of all households, this is lower than back here.
And just means that you have way more population because of the explosion growth in this particular market. It is high nonetheless. It indicates that sellers feel there’s lower demand for their home.
The buyers are just not biting. That is affecting how sellers list homes. I’ll show you some of that data in a second.
But ultimately overall, it’s not panic mode. However, I would call this neutral, very balanced. Buyers have a shot at getting a deal.
Sellers aren’t gonna be able to go crazy with price and expect to sell their home. We see this in very high demand areas of Winter Garden right now. People throw their home in fantasy land and then they’re punished for it.
They just sit there. And ultimately, that won’t matter if price stays and holds. If price erodes from here because you see this inventory continue to climb a ladder north from here, if buyers continue past the election saying I’m not coming to the market and unsold inventory spikes, especially going to Spring, then that will derail pricing a little bit, cause a little bit more focus on sellers.
It’ll also teach sellers, don’t let your house be out there too long because price will punish you if inventory continues to go north. Price will hurt. Time hurts a seller in a nature of a marketplace where inventory just keeps stacking up.
Now this is an important chart I wanna show you that is a phenomenon that’s happening all across the city and all across the state of Florida. I’m watching all the major markets across Florida. This chart is cash as a percentage of closed sales.
This reading for last month shows that there were 18.4% of all closings from cash in Winter Garden. This is a marketplace where you have a lot of affluent buyers. And look at 18%.
If you go straight to the left, when’s the last time we’re at 18% in cash purchasing? June of 2021, okay? So then you go even before that, maybe 2020. It was a week, weird year. But this represents a very low mix.
Now look at the chart below, okay? Just to give you an idea. A year ago, 18% closed from cash represents a third less than a year ago, same month. And look at most of the year recent from May.
So you have negative 19.9%. You were up 11, but you’re down nine the next, down 15, down 29. Most of the markets in Florida, and I did a deep reading on my other channel on Tampa, Jacksonville, and Miami. Miami has a very high cash purchase percentage in their entire market.
A lot of people with power and cash buying happens there. Low mortgage percentage. They hit a wall hard in the spring, and it’s really not come back, which is an interesting phenomenon.
I’m not saying it means anything, okay? I’m not saying it means anything, but it would be stupid not to inform you so you could put it in your head and process it. Go in the comments and say, this is what it means, because it means something. It is starkly interesting that right now, cash has pulled out.
And it’s, you’d say, Jared, what’s important about it? Look at the rate chart that I started with. If all you’re left with is borrowers that have to deal with a mortgage rate in order to buy, then climbing interest rates matters all the more when the cash buyers, which would be expected to buy 30 or 40% of all of your inventory, they’re just not there, okay? So a lot of people like to make boogeymen out of cash buyers. Like, oh, it’s all these cash buyers doing all this stuff.
Well, not now. They’re literally less than one out of five buyers. So you have few cash buyers in the market competing to buy anything right now in regard to pretty much the rest of the state.
Something interesting is happening. Now, the next thing we’re looking at is total dollar volume. This is like looking at the GDP.
GDP for the country, for instance, combined amount of business that the country does. This is combined dollar volume of real estate transacted. Look at what’s happening on the trend, okay? So let’s take a look down here at the bottom.
You had 91 million in sales in September, 87 million in August, and going on down. Now, look at the percentage, look at the trend. Three out of the past four months are negative.
Negative numbers to last year. Negative five, nine, negative two, six, negative four, three. Now, how do you get dollar volume? Dollar volume is cumulative number of homes sold and actual percentage of sale price that’s being transacted.
So essentially, when you go negative, not a good sign. And it’s actually a rare sign. So most housing markets year over year on their own are putting up bigger price tags as a percentage, right? Average sale price usually goes up, average median.
So you’re multiplying by bigger numbers. So even if you sell a few less homes, you’re still gonna have a higher dollar volume just for the sheer fact that everybody’s sale price is bigger than it was the year prior. So for us to actually be running negative trends in total dollar volume is an interesting fact.
It’s a sign that there’s a little bit of a headwind in the market. And understand this too, 2024 running negative to 23 in dollar volume is a headline on its own because 23 was abysmal. It was a multi-decade low amount of sales in the marketplace, really throughout the country.
So we’re trending against very poor numbers. And obviously, you see dollar volume is dropping. It’s something to be mindful of.
And again, we wanna see how this trend goes as a whole. Do we see a softer October? How does November look? And we’ll see how it plays out going into 25. Now we just saw dollar volume.
Let’s look at median sale price. Median sale price is the safest metric in my opinion as a person who watches data to see what’s going on with price because median pulls the middle. You have a marketplace like Winter Garden or Windermere where you have very high mix of higher-end homes.
Median is a very conservative way of looking at because it just cuts the middle. Whether you have a lot of trading at the high end or the low end, median keeps that from skewing what you’re seeing in the results. So look at this.
Again, trend is your friend, right? Look at the most recent trend. We had dollar volume drop in the last few months. Look at this.
July had a negative 10% month. You had really a break-even August. It was almost dead even to last year.
And then you had six-tenths of 1% in September. So you don’t have gaining price. But if you’ve been watching my channel, this isn’t a surprise to you.
And I’m gonna show you why. I’ve been telling you that this is going to soften in the result by showing you this chart I’m about to pull up right now. And why are we not surprised that we’re falling price? I’ve been showing you this graph for months.
Look at this. This, by the way, is the median list price year over year. In the history of Forever, everybody that’s ever listed a house, all of these are separate months.
Month, month, month, month. This is 2021 when people were asking way more than prior year. So all of these climbs represents how much more over last year above zero people were asking.
Look at the pinnacle, by the way. This right here. People were asking in June 2022.
This was the end, by the way. This is when interest rates surged to 700%. This was the show was over.
You can see it fell off a cliff. Now it’s negative. That’s the problem we’re gonna talk about in a second.
Look at this. It was positive 34%. People were asking 34% more in June 2022 of the homes hitting the market.
Now, did they sell? Probably not. In fact, after June, a lot of these owners probably pulled way back and we saw the percent that they actually sold for vastly different than what they were asking. However, this is what’s happening now.
The reason why this, my friends, is so important is because when sellers put their home on the market, they look around. They have a conversation with a broker. They say, how do I feel about the market right now? Is there a lot of competition? Do I feel like there’s high demand for my home? Are buyers hungry and ready to go? What is the circumstances around my house? Now, look at this.
This is zero, okay? So except for right here when the pandemic began, most of all the history in Winter Garden is above zero. Every month, higher than last year. Every month, higher than last year.
Homes hitting the market don’t go below, as a median, negative. They don’t go negative. It’s not common.
This, just optically, you’re looking at a graph and you’re like, Jared, if this was my health and all of a sudden I see all this, this is all the way back to 2017, by the way, I’m way above and all of a sudden it factors drop. You’re like, optically, that’s not a good thing. It’s never there.
So tell me what I’m looking at, Jared. Well, here’s what you’re looking at. In April, we had finally slumped from the great peak of 2022.
This past April, we’re at positive two. So we’re now putting listings on the market as in a group in April at 2% positive. By May, that number falls off a cliff to 8% negative.
So sellers are now in the peak of summer and they’re looking around going, if I do not go way conservative, I can’t give all this wiggle room on my price. Seller’s got the message. And this was a fascinating conversation to have because I would meet people in April.
I remember people in Winter Garden sitting with them in April saying, I think we can do this because I’m on this, I feel the market positive against last year and by May, that game is over. Then you have sellers coming into May with April recommendations and they think, oh, everything’s fine and it’s not. It’s already shifting.
In fact, it shifted big. I mean, you’re talking big numbers. 8% on a million dollar house is almost $100,000 swing against the year prior.
And sellers think an agent is taking their money out of their pocket. Like, no, look around. Most sellers have a cognitive awareness, look around and say, ooh, wow, this is getting interesting.
And if they have to sell, they have to deal with that reality and price accordingly. Okay, you don’t fight it, you deal with it. So this led to interesting conversations.
Now, it’s gone a little bit the other direction, right? So we felt the marketplace, which had, by the way, we got all the way to 11.45 negative in July. It’s got a couple months going a little bit north, but homes hitting the market right now are going in 7% lower than a year prior. Now look at this, because remember, if a seller starts low, but then they sell, by the time they sell, do they get more than they’re asking in that scenario? Or are they negotiating some down? I’ll answer your question with a chart.
This, my friends, is median percent of original list price. This is how much sellers have to give from their original price to get out of the house. So look at the latest trend.
Now, by the way, you can’t read the bottom probably because you can’t see it on screen, but October of last year, people were getting 98.5% of their asking price. A year later, they’re getting 96.8% of their asking price. So they’re giving up like 3.2% to get out of their home, which by the way, 3.2%, the last couple months, it’s been that.
So the last 90 days, sellers have been giving 3.2%. That’s a number we haven’t seen in several months. In fact, if you look over here, these last three months that I just told you about, they’re kind of strung together here, which is low, right? Look how long. This is a year and a half for the data.
And now we’re bottoming out right now. Why? Unsold inventory is going up. And by the way, what’s really weird is this is bottoming out when we just saw these same owners are going in low to start with.
They’re going in low to start with and they’re finishing low, which just means that there’s some definite shifting in the market. Sellers are taking the temperature and they’re making adjustments to sell the house. It’s showing that there’s a little bit of a shift.
Market is neutral, okay? This isn’t a crash, a collapse, or anything like that. I don’t care what my thumbnail showed you. You gotta do what you gotta do to get a view, okay? But then I’m gonna show you exactly what it is, okay? This is what we consider a neutral market, okay? Buyers can’t just come in with their garden and be like, I demand you sell me your house for our 2019 price.
If you call me and ask me that, I’m gonna tell you, that’s not how you’re gonna buy a house. Like, they’ll have another buyer. They sell them away a week.
There’ll be another one like you that’ll pay them more, pay them most of their price, 3% of their asking price. In fact, if you don’t wanna pay within 4% of someone’s price, it’s probably not a house for you, okay? Doesn’t mean the market’s crashing. It just means it’s more neutral, okay? It just means it’s more balanced.
However, look at this, December of 2022. It collapsed to 95.8%. Why did it do that? Because the interest rate that year shot up from 3% to 7.5% overnight. All of a sudden, sellers are like, oh, what’s going on? Buyers couldn’t afford the house anymore because their pre-approvals got cut.
Again, that’s what happened this past month. It wasn’t as extreme as 3% to 7.5% swing, but it was 6.2% to now closing in on 7.25%. One of the most volatile upward moves in rate, by the way, in the last 30 days that we’ve seen in a long time. I mean, that’s a big move.
And that’s a shock of cold water to the buyers. So essentially, they can’t afford your house to the same degree they could. The buyer pool for 500,000, for instance, just dropped to 470 overnight, okay? I was looking for this.
My lender gave me a new letter. That happened all across all price categories. So you lost a buyer, okay? By the way, the buyer that you lost was looking at nicer homes a week ago.
They were 30 grand above you. Wow, isn’t it exciting? It’s a fun market to live in. Sorry, Billy, you can’t afford that pool now.
You’re gonna have to settle with a lawn. Let’s take a look at months of supply, months of supply. This is, my friends, the most important graph of all in relation to how busy is the market, okay? So right now, you are at a 3.2 month of supply.
Prior month was 3.4, 3.3. It’s kind of flat, okay? It’s kind of flat. It’s hung up right here. It’s elevated, okay? We’re at a point that we haven’t seen since 2017, okay? But does that mean it’s high? Well, I can give you this.
The nation as an economy is like 3.7. It’s higher. The entire car economy countrywide is higher. Now, Winter Garden feels slower for Winter Garden because it’s at 3.2 months of supply, and that’s a number we haven’t seen inside of this city for seven or eight years, okay? It’s not high.
It’s elevated for sure. And again, I don’t think, by the way, it’s going to stay where it is. By November, I have a feeling this is gonna climb a little bit higher and be a little bit closer to 3.5 or 3.6 because interest rates, if they do not abate, are gonna give us problems in the winter with buyer demand, okay? By the way, what does this stat mean? This statistic means if you stop listing all homes right now, how long would it take for the inventory to completely sell off in the face of how many buyers are buying them month after month? Right now, if you stop listing homes in Winter Garden, and obviously more people are gonna list, but if you didn’t, it would take 3.2 months to sell all the homes.
And again, as I mentioned, that’s a little high for the area. It’s obviously way better than what we were running in 2021, which was half a month. You would literally run out of listings in about 17 days because it was such an aggressive marketplace at that time.
So it is elevated. It’s nothing to, this is the problem that you have for buyers that feel like they can steal a house in this market. It’s not crazy out of control.
If this were five months, six, seven months of supply, means you have a really high elevated active inventory, real big pullback in buyers. That’s when you have a disparity where sellers are slashing prices. On the way in, on the way out, that’s when you see a pullback and a very deepened buyer market, buyer control.
I wanna show you one more chart on the way out. This is pending listings, okay? New pens. This is buyers putting homes under contract.
It is a lead indicator, means it’s gonna start to tell us what kind of homes we’re gonna have closing 30 to 60 days from now. This is a measure of activity on the buy side. Now, right now, in the last month, September, interest rates were starting to go down.
That means you had a 30% increase over prior year. 134 homes put under contract, which by the way, that was higher than August. So September’s usually a frosty month for Winter Garden, but you had a increase in buyer activities, a little hotter.
It was higher than August. It was higher than July. July was low.
In fact, July was like flat to last year. And I told you, last year was abysmal. But honestly, most of Winter Garden this year, buyers have been positively active.
There’s not been any negative month on record in Winter Garden for new pendings in the past 12 months. However, that’s not saying a whole lot, okay? Told you this already. Last month was abysmal, abysmally dead.
So you’re chasing very weak numbers. And my friends, when you have a year like this, we’re like, oh, yay, we’re up. It’s like an NBA player boasting because he’s beating a kid on a JV middle school team.
I’m up. Yeah, big deal. You’re beating on a JV kid.
That was a JV year, okay? Helps you understand that. Winter Garden has one of the higher luxury percentages in all the marketplaces in Orlando. They have a very high percentage of 1 million plus transaction volume, which is homes sitting on the market and homes closing year in, year out.
There’s a lot of that in this particular market. You do not wanna miss an upcoming update that I have on this channel where I’m going to do a deep dive in the million plus club. I’m gonna talk to the luxury market, tell you exactly what’s going on year to date.
So if that’s you, if you’re interested in what’s going on in the marketplace, seven figures and above, tune in that update. Also by the time you’re seeing this video, I just did a conversation which should be up on my channel by the time you’re watching this where I talked to property insurance expert, Mark Freelander from the Insurance Information Institute where we do a deep dive in what’s going on as a result of the legislature changes because insurance is a huge problem. What to expect going into 2025 in the world of insurance as well as how can we as folks in Orlando, how can we expect our insurance rates to be not just with the changes to legislature, but also knowing we had some really big storms that caused a lot of damage to our same insurance companies on the coast.
They’re having to shell out cash. Will that impact us? How will that affect the changes going forward? You do not wanna miss that as well. If you’re in the Central Florida area and you’re looking for a great church, I’d love for you to join me at the Grove Bible Chapel.
Just visit joinmeathegrove.com for full details. By the way, when you’re buying or selling a home, the process itself can feel overwhelming. That’s why you need a great real estate expert to turn it around for you.
That’s why you need to make one call, that’s all, and put my 23 years of experience in nearly 4,000 homes sold to work for you. ♪ Jared Jones gives the way to go, call 706-5000. ♪
Best Realtor in Winter Garden, Florida - Reach Out Today
If you’re ready to make a move in Florida’s real estate market, don’t hesitate to reach out. Contact Jared Jones at 407-706-5000 (call or text) or email info@jaredjones.com for professional guidance and personalized service that will help you achieve your real estate goals.
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As a top real estate agent with nearly 4,000 homes sold and over 20 years of experience in the Florida real estate market, I have the expertise needed to help you navigate today’s evolving landscape. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, my deep understanding of market trends and personalized approach will provide you with the insights and strategies required for success.
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