You can see how after the 2008 crash took place, once all of that inventory got settled and things became normalized through 17, 18, 19, most of the economy here is used to around two and a half to three months of supply, not more. So right now, when you look at the inventory levels and how slow they are selling, because now you have a situation where there’s not a lack of choice. You go to Clermont and you have 300 homes for sale.

These are numbers that haven’t been seen again for several years running. And what do we need to know about as we head into the fall? Well, I’m going to make some keen predictions here in a minute. Let me show you a couple more data points.

I’m going to come back to what I think is going to happen to price inventory and all those other things based on the history of this particular market. Now, if you’ve watched my videos before, you know that I’m going to pull up a couple of different things. I’m going to show you the overvalued percentages just based on the data.

I’m also going to show you some things like what’s the market trend for these markets. Is it priced down? Is it priced up? Let’s take a look at that really fast. Now I have the luxury of obviously showing you a few other markets.

You can see Montverde is 43. It’s actually more balanced. It’s a buyer’s market, but it’s more towards the middle.

50 is dead even between buyer and seller. You can also see that Clermont, 34711, the main North market here shows a 43, which is high. I’m going to tell you why that’s deceptively high.

Now just below, going South on 27, which includes the North part going towards Wellness Way and all the way down towards the Four Corners area, it’s showing a 34. Now you’re going to say, Jared, I just thought you showed me high months of supply and there’s all this price change from one summer to the next for the main part of 34711. Why is it a 43? Well, the number for this price forecast comes from recent appreciation days on market time, how much the mortgage rates are in a given marketplace, the inventory, and how many price cuts are taking place against the history of that market.

So for instance, if I show you the price cut percentages throughout Clermont, it’s mostly 30 to 35% of all the listings have experienced a price cut. That’s a high number for almost any market where one out of three listings available has already undergone a price cut in order to try and sell. But for this little-used-to-be rural market.

And I say that, and people who are local to that market know I’m right. They go, I wish it were as rural as it used to be. It’s not anymore.

But the point is it used to be. So you’re running data against 2015, 2016, and 2017 when 15,000 fewer people had moved here. So ultimately, you have to understand that in the history of this market, when averaging it, a lot of the statistics that I just shared with you, such as price cut percentages, well, price cuts have always been relatively high in Clermont in 17, 2018, and 19.

So the number is going to be a little skewed here, but the reality is you need to understand it is shifting. Now take 34714 for a second. This is the Southern market.

Okay, this is going down 27 towards Wellness Way. You need to look at how it’s plummeted into buyer market territory, showing a 34. And the inventory? If you look at the inventory, they both are going straight up.

The reality is these numbers look far worse than history. Why? Because the population in the South part of Clermont doubled in about four years. There’s way more listings being put on the market. So the numbers are obviously going to make this one look much more like a buyer’s market.

When you compare the South to the North and look at the data piece by piece, they’re both suffering from the same thing. There are fewer pendings, fewer buyers putting homes in contract, more unsold inventory—not necessarily sellers flooding the market, but that’s what’s taking place. Now the next chart we’re looking at is the ratio of the overvalued part of the marketplace.

So up here in the North, 34715, it’s showing 21.6% overvalued, 34711 showing 25.3% overvalued, and in the South, it’s showing 16% overvalued. And I know this particular metric likes to, well, get a lot of comments. All this is, is pulling the income level for this zip code, showing the census data for what people actually make in terms of what homes cost.

Now you would say, Jared, where does the percentage come from? It comes from running the numbers on the long-term averages for this market. How much do people actually make, and how much do they actually spend on housing in the long run? And this is what we get. Now, let me show you one more thing, and then we’ll make some predictions.

This, my friends, is the list price starting price versus a year ago. Now this is a fascinating leading indicator because if people are bringing property into the market below what they were asking a year ago, okay—meaning sellers last year were asking $300,000—now, in the same month, a year later, houses coming to the market are $50,000 more, then theoretically, that’s a leading indicator saying homes are most likely going up and that they’re eventually going to negotiate a couple percentage points off of those newfound higher asking prices. But take a look at this. You’re going to notice if you see my coverage, there’s a lot of dipping in the asking price compared to last year, which is a concerning sign.

All it tells us is, you say, Jared, people can just ask anything they want, can’t they? Well, no. This is relatively steady at a plus zero percentage. Okay.

In history, it’s always three, four, 5% over the prior year. It’s rarely ever negative in any market anywhere. It’s uncommon that anytime you go a year back in real estate that the asking price actually dips.

Why? Because we already know most people are conservative with their asking price. Do they usually leave money on the table at the start? No. So for people to actually ask less shows us that with the mentality of the seller and the asking price being set with the broker, they’re looking around and seeing signs of trouble in their mind, that the demand is off. So you can see 34715 up here.

We can see the asking prices are down 5.28% in 34711. They’re down 0.6%. Now granted, negative 5 is a big drop.

That is a sign that there is a little slack in the line. 34715, 34711 are holding very steady. There have been some dips, a couple percentage points below negative over the past 12 months, but overall, it’s been very positive.

And then 34714, which is the more affordable part of the marketplace, negative 3.1. You can see big blue Winter Garden over here, which has been posting negative 9, negative 10—right now it’s pushing a negative 11%—and why? It’s about affordability. It’s about that.

Some of these prices, the buyers in these markets are just walking from. All right. So you’re looking to buy in Clermont, and you’re trying to understand exactly what’s coming into the fall.

So here’s the deal. Every single year, there is a down cycle of active inventory in the Clermont area. So as we go into the fall season, we typically see our active inventory, like clockwork, start to plummet after July.

That means there’s going to be a pullback now for whatever reason. We have to understand that there’s something going on in the economy that we feel like hasn’t unfolded yet. 

I mean, a lot of people describe this in different ways. Some people are saying, they’re saying, “You know, after the election, I think something’s going to change.” And that means a variety of things to people.

But I think the larger narrative is that there’s something happening in the economy, and we don’t know what that’s going to look like. So you have to understand that when people experience job losses, if we see unemployment get worse—which is candidly the reason why the interest rates were just cut—it’s because our central bank made it a priority. The Federal Reserve made it a priority to preserve the job market.

Now, why would they do that? Well, they obviously didn’t tackle inflation. So if they’re concerned that more people are going to lose their jobs, then there’s a bigger reason why we right now are seeing people hold off on their home purchases, even though interest rates are one and a quarter percent down.

So here’s the thing. If we see a marketplace like we did in 2022, which means if we see more people putting homes on the market and we don’t see inventory collapse after the summer season is over, like it historically does, if it remains high or even continues to grow, then my friends, you are going to put some values under contract in December. What kind of values? Just an estimation, eight, nine, 10, 12, possibly 14% below the median price of the peak of 2024.

So as an example, we had a peak in 2024 around $484,000 to $490,000 for the moving season. We could see our median price dip into the low four hundreds coming into January.

And it will be a moment in time. There will be a section of the market that will sell off at a good discount. And then again, I don’t know what will happen after that.

I don’t know; February and March are going to get insane. But I will tell you that if you’re watching and paying attention to some of these markets, you’re going to have some very good opportunities to negotiate some values, particularly in the months ahead. So if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines and thinking of buying or selling a home in the Clermont area, make sure you put the best on your side when it comes to navigating this market.

Personally, I have over 22 years of experience in the real estate market, nearly 4,000 real estate transactions.

My team combined has somewhere around 35 to 40 years of experience, and we’re here to make sure you buy, sell, or invest the right way, the first time. That’s it for today’s update.

We’ll see you on the next one.