Florida Real Estate Market Trends for 2024

Key Points:

• 80% of Americans believe it’s a bad time to buy a house, according to Fannie Mae’s Housing Index.
• Florida’s major metros are seeing inventory growth up to 100% year-over-year.
• 2023 home sales hit a 30-year low, with only 4 million homes sold nationally.
• Sellers in Miami and Naples have already dropped asking prices by over 11%.
• Foreclosure starts are spiking in Florida, with Jacksonville and Orlando in the national top 10.

The Real Estate Market Shift

We live in a fascinating time when most people will not believe the truth no matter what, unless it came out of someone’s mouth on mainstream media or on television or somewhere we consider verifiable. Maybe it could be a friend, like the friend down the street that knows everything. We’re like, “Hey, it’s Bob. Bob’s got a good handle on the economy. We should listen to him.”

One of the biggest challenges we have in real estate right now is that there is an epic shift going on. I don’t know if it’s an election year or the nature of the media kind of rooting for the home team, but something is not being reported. It’s kind of pushed under the rug, and even when it is reported, it’s carried under weird guises and weird pretenses.

2024: A Tough Year for Homeowners

You have 2024, which is looking abysmally bad for homeowners. If you have a house on the market in the US, you’re facing more competition and fewer buyers than even last year. That’s saying something because in 2023, remember we barely sold over 4 million homes, a number so low we haven’t seen it since 1995. Now, here we are heading into the end of most market cycles in the US, with back-to-school and holidays distracting buyers. We just set one of the worst records for a summer selling season, but it’s not getting reported in the media. Buyers know this and are staying out, but sellers have no idea this is happening.

Media Narratives and Market Realities

Why is it this way? Because it’s not being reported accurately. Look at 2023, for instance. During that year, we were putting up a very weak sell-off in the existing home market. It was like a 30-year low, and keep in mind, 30 years ago, we had 25% less population than we do now. The media was saying it was a lack of inventory, never addressing that people didn’t want to pay the price due to raging unaffordability. Now, the narrative has shifted to interest rates, but last year we also had 7% interest rates.

The Data Tells the Truth

I’m going to show you some data here in a minute, particularly in the state of Florida. You are about to see an epic sign like never before that this is going to be a chilly winter. Many marketplaces throughout the country are seeing their sales collapse with very few buyers. The low end and mid-range, which are incredibly important, are seeing high inventory growth with buyers backing away. The warning signs are there.

Look at this report from Fannie Mae. They do a housing index survey regularly. 80% of Americans think it’s a bad time to buy a house. This isn’t surprising. Buyer sentiment remains high in thinking it’s a bad time to buy, and we see that playing out in the economy. On the other side, home sellers remain optimistic, thinking it’s a good time to sell. This is misguided, at least in Florida, where you are seeing record levels of inventory in major metros.

Florida Market Analysis

Major metros in Florida, like those hit hard in the great financial collapse from 2007 to 2012, are seeing a return to inventory levels not seen in 12 years. Sellers in these areas are not understanding that buyers have left the building. We’ve had a long season where hero moves on selling were common, but now sellers haven’t gotten the picture.

The Inventory Surge

According to Wolf Street, home sales are sagging further due to mortgage rates, with prices and active listings surging. This weekend, I’m covering five major Gulf markets, including Lakeland, which is topping the list for foreclosure starts in the entire country. Jacksonville and Orlando are also in the top 10 for foreclosure starts. The problem is listings surging while buyers back away. Seasonally adjusted existing home sales are trailing, having a hard time in 2024 selling the amount of homes sold last year.

Reventure Consulting provides data showing sellers in Florida setting asking prices well below the prior year. This is a forward indicator when people are not advancing prices and are actually going well under. Most people will negotiate even lower. This leading indicator shows a market shifting drastically, with major markets seeing sellers pulling back on prices in a way not seen in years.

Jerome Powell, during his testimony to Congress, made it clear that high interest rates are good for future home buyers because they create higher unsold inventory, leading to more desperate sellers and price adjustments. Despite recent CPI reports showing two months of stability, the Fed is not planning to reduce rates. Powell is focused on controlling prices, not concerned with people losing their jobs.

The Reality of Foreclosures

While foreclosures are still low, the climbing unemployment rate will lead to more listings. Some Florida markets are seeing inventory levels reaching those of the great financial collapse. Sellers are not calculating this and are playing little games, expecting unrealistic prices. The market is less forgiving, and sellers’ optimism needs to be tempered with reality.

Why Choose Jared Jones?

As a top real estate agent with nearly 4,000 homes sold and over 20 years of experience in the Florida real estate market, I have the expertise needed to help you navigate today’s evolving landscape. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, my deep understanding of market trends and personalized approach will provide you with the insights and strategies required for success.

Best Realtor in Florida - Reach Out Today

If you’re ready to make a move in Florida’s real estate market, don’t hesitate to reach out. Contact Jared Jones at 407-706-5000 (call or text) or email info@jaredjones.com for professional guidance and personalized service that will help you achieve your real estate goals.

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