The more primary residence, the probably more sustained prices, the more short-term rental affected. It is the more you have a chance of seeing some softness. For instance, Kissimmee right here in three, four, seven, four, seven, old Lake Wilson road reunion, all of these areas right here, had folks call me recently that you’ve been watching my updates.

She’s like, how is my house going to do in this particular area? And you’re going to see that this is where there is a softening in price. And it’s been going on for almost two years. So this is not a recent eight month thing, anything like that.

I would say, if anything, you might see it actually just kind of catch a little tension this year because it has been slipping. We’re going to kind of isolate each of these areas and talk about just how much prices change over that amount of time. You’re going to know that by the end of this video.

Now, next thing we’re looking at is how much has inventory grown in each of these areas since last year, look at this, the area with the most growth up here in the North, 36% change. You have champions gate right here, 18% change. And then down to the South it’s up 24%.

And again, these numbers aren’t actually crazy high when compared with some of the general metro area in some of the greater U S I think the U S is even putting up most of the other States that are much calmer than what you’re hearing with all the raging inventory growth of Texas at four. They’re now coming to a full year cycle where they’re seeing 20, 25% up in a lot of different areas. Now, the only change is these have had really big leaps in the years before this.

So before this year, you know, we’re now seeing, okay, maybe 35% growth in a nine, but last year it was 50 or 70%, 60% some of these areas. So we’re, we’re cresting a little higher off of already high numbers. And today I’m going to talk about where that’s coming from.

Why is it growing? Is a lot of listings come to market or the buyers just can’t afford it or not buying it or whatever. We’re going to figure that out. Let’s take a quick look at price cuts.

You’re going to notice that price cuts are not a high percentage of all the listings at this particular month. Okay. So right here in eight, nine, seven, there’s 15% price reductions, 15% in champions gate and 18.8%. And again, I will say looking at history in the past few months, these are actually coming down in the past 90 days.

So sellers are feeling a little confident, okay. Or maybe there’s psychological barriers to cutting price. Like I’m going to wait for the election to pass.

I’m going to wait for a winter season to pass because that many people are shopping. So I’m going to reduce during this phase. So there’s a little bit kind of a holding pattern.

This is seasonal to some degree. I expect some of this to change. We go into 2025 further into the year.

Next chart we’re looking at across all zip codes. How fast is it taking to sell a house in these areas? It’s now 32% longer in the north champions gate areas taking about 28% longer to sell than a year prior. And down in the South, the shortest gap against last year is three, three, three, seven with 22.3% longer timeframe to sell.

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That’s all list your home for just 3% and start packing. Now this next chart we’re looking at is one of my favorite indicators to give you an idea of what’s coming next. This is year over year median list price.

This is a sign of you’re going to have possible future negative price erosion into the future. Because what this is telling us is that for instance, right here in champions gate homeowners this past month put their homes on the market at a 9% lower amount median than they were a year ago. Okay.

So again, this is not the sale price. This is the leading indicator of saying it’s going in the market lower than last year, by the way, historically, most markets around Orlando, they don’t go negative to last year. Why? Because most sellers do the same thing.

They bring the house, they look at it, they compare it as they’re about ready to sell it. They look and say, I’m going to ask a little more than the person who just sold and his home likely sold for a little bit higher than the year prior. So ultimately overall, usually the asking price is always positive territory.

That’s not been the case. Now, by the way, some of these were actually worse recently. Take a look.

And this is kind of, look what I’m saying. This is three, three, eight, nine, six. This is champions gate.

This is the zero line in the history going back to 2017. You can see that every month, every time you would set an asking price, it’s in the positive. It’s above this line, but look what took place here early back in 2024.

This is be February, March timeframe. It slipped negative for the first time. And now what has happened since, well, if you look at the timeframe going back from now against two years ago, this marketplace is around three percentage points or 4% points depends on which months you look at it in negative territory.

So if you bought a house in this particular market, depending on where you are in eight, nine, six in 2022, you might be facing a asking price below what you paid. Okay. At this season.

Now you have to understand this is an entire index of a zip code of homes. Okay. So some of these homes are above performing better than the average.

Some are performing worse. So while some of these homes are giving back three or 4% negative against two years ago, some of them might be eight, 9%. And that is a reality for some sellers here.

Now look at this is the same chart to the North. Okay. So this is highway 27 to four corners, eight, nine, seven, their median asking price.

Look at it’s just toyed with the zero line. That’s why this marketplace probably out of the three has probably one of the lowest price givebacks you can see, look, it went way down when the pandemic started and then it raged the opposite direction. Okay.

It was really weird. So like, as soon as we locked down everything and we came back open again in the summer, the regular residential market went on fire almost immediately in 2020. Okay.

Still kind of a head scratcher. See, Hey, what’s going to happen. But STR did the opposite short-term rental market areas were like, we don’t know if we can get tenants and occupants in our properties.

So there was a huge question mark time period that these marketplaces suffered because there was so much uncertainty that some people are just going to unload them in 2020 before there was actually a known path to make your money because there were a lot of different restrictions in place, whether or not you could actually travel, if you could stay in these places. So things didn’t really feel more open until 2021. And that’s when a lot of the stimulus had already been passed.

That’s when a lot of people had corporate money to then spend from PPP and all this other kind of stuff, that money obviously found its way into residential market and raged the opposite direction. So you can see it went as high here, the peak, there was an 85% increase in asking price in February, 2022. This by the way, was the end, like middle of 2022 financing terms for these particular markets got so difficult for buyers that you only had cash buyers because then at that point, if you were going to mortgage this, it became complicated.

It became like the math doesn’t really work. And you can see, look at that in February of 2021, the median asking price for the zip code was $195,000. And then a year later in February, it was $357,000.

Interesting, interesting, interesting. So what do you have now? You have STR kind of, kind of returning to an imbalance. And so a lot of homeowners now are coming to grips with the fact that like, okay, I bought in in 2019 at 600,000.

Now my place is worth 1.2, but really they can only get one nil for it. So they’ve actually lost a couple hundred thousand in what they could have gotten January of 2022. And they’re grappling with the notion of like, I’m not going to get that much, but you’re still getting a lot more than 600.

And again, some people are on the backside of that where they bought in later. So if you buy in 2022 or 2023, I’m not dooming you. I’m just saying, if you look at the math now and I don’t advise it, steady the course, build your property up, make it make a lot of money, sell if you have to, but understand you have to have a very good agent.

Someone could actually attract an immense amount of value around these changing circumstances. And yes, I do work this market. Hey, it’s me interrupting myself.

Need to buy or sell? Make one call, problem solved and put 23 years of experience and nearly 4,000 satisfied home sales to work for you. All right. Now we’re going to do our data deep dive for each of the zip codes.

I’m going to show you a couple of key highlights. So if you live in these areas, you’re looking to buy here, you know exactly what’s going on. We’re going to start with three, three, eight, three, seven.