Orlando's Housing Market on the Brink: Signs of Change Ahead
There are major changes unfolding in the housing market across Orlando. Changes that if they do not slow or change direction very soon, we’re coming to the end of the peak season and we’re seeing some major signs that show us that going into 2025, you can expect a big shift in home price. I’m going to let you see the data so you can make a determination for yourself.
I don’t want to be at risk, but you got to understand Florida Association of Realtors here in the last two days, just dumped a massive amount of data. You’ve already been seeing a bunch of mixed headlines throughout the country over the past month, weird things going on. And a lot of that’s taking hold in the South.
So a lot of what’s going on and you’re hearing about builders that can’t unload properties, builders that are giving back buyers here in the Orlando market 30 to 50 grand at the sale in order to buy their interest rate down to as low as four to 4.99% for 30 or fixed. So we can reverse the interest rate back to a number we have not seen in two years, yet the houses are still not selling. Builders finished unsold homes in the South has reached 2009 levels.
It means they have a very big backlog of homes, which shows us buyers are on strike. There is ever increasing evidence now that this strike, which honestly has already hit parts of Florida very hard over the last two years, not been felt in Orlando. In fact, many of you watching this video might be saying to yourself, I don’t understand the economy you’re describing, Jared, because that’s just, you know, I put my house in the market a year ago and it just flew.
That’s, we’re in a way different world right now. So if you have not been paying attention, people that are on the market right now will tell you exactly what I’m saying is true. They would say, you know what, he’s right. This makes total sense. The narrative is getting interesting. And I think what’s really the head scratcher is a lot of people are torn between two camps and I’m going to show you the data. So you kind of decide which camp you fall in. One camp is sitting here a bit concerned because they’ve seen price go vertical for two years, three years, 70 to a hundred percent price gains, housing prices on homes that were $400,000 three short years ago.
They’re asking a million, a million, one, a million, three. And they’re going, there’s an internal debate as to this is a bubble, but is this the first asset bubble that never pops? Then there’s this other side where, you know, being fully led to believe is a soft landing coming. Okay.
So this is all under control. And, you know, the other side of this is, is a tentative seller. You know, you might have people on the market right now that are noticing there’s a lot more homes with for sale signs on my way home. In the last two weeks, I’ve noticed way more. This is the story. This is the narrative you’re hearing. This other camp is starting to say, I also am hearing that more of my friends have to sell. They cannot not sell. They’re at a point where they’ve borrowed too much money on credit cards.
Rising Unsold Inventory and Slower Sales Ahead
Something is going on with is putting them in a position, whether it’s just life change, a divorce, a relocation, they have to sell. And they’re sitting here looking at this economy with this, everything is going to change. The soft landing will appear soon, right? As they’re seeing things on a down slope. Okay. There’s evidence of more unsold homes, homes taking far longer to sell. Prices aren’t going raging like they were in the past.
What is going to turn the tide? Okay. And honestly, there’s not a lot of evidence on that particular side of the coin, but let me help you see some crazy stats in Orlando that I want to show you just so you can kind of get the narrative and we get up. This is just part one of some amazing updates.
So you can help you understand the changes that are kind of unfolding in the Orlando market housing at large, but look at what’s being reported. I’m going to come down to the bottom of this report because at the very bottom, we are, this literally was released in 24 hours from now. And this is the national data for median sale price.
How many homes are going under contract? How active are the buyers? This will be something I want to compare the rest of Orlando to because you need to have an index. Okay. How is, you know, Jared’s telling me all this information, but how does that look versus the rest of the country? Okay.
It’s very important. We always want to do this whenever Florida is on fire. Like, Oh, look how much Florida has gone way up so much faster than the rest of the country.
It’s fun to do it when it’s positive, but it’s not so fun when you have to actually own up to the fact that we’re not performing the same as the rest of the country who has the rest similar interest rates as similar market dynamics. We have to address what’s going on. We have to look at how we’re doing, but look at this.
Affordability Crisis Persists Despite Interest Rate Drop
Redfin reports, house hunters are back as monthly payments post first annual decline. Okay. So at the headline, what’s the headline tell us? The headline tells us that, Oh, you know what? Interest rates dropped. So people are buying homes again. Uh, also, uh, this big affordability crisis put a pin in that baby. It’s been canceled, but look at this, look what the article actually says.
It says the median us mortgage payment was 2000, 2005 87. During the first four weeks of August. It’s the lowest level since February sounds big, right? It is down 0.1%. It’s down one basis point, which is $2. I even know it’s ridiculous. It’s not even an it’s negligible report. And this is a tiny drop it admits by the second paragraph, it deferred, but it’s, but it marks the first time in four years that monthly payments have posted any decline at all and ultimately it comes down to these 15 month low interest rates, 6.5%. My friends, listen, if the builders can’t get the job done at 4.99, this is not going to gain traction. Am I right? Can we all agree? Okay.
Jared, but, but the, but the headline just said that buyers are back at house hunting mode. They’re touring houses. Okay. Now mind you, interest rates have been dropping for three months. Interest rates are down 90 basis points, nearly one full percent over one year ago. Okay.
The problem is affordability. Even with this being a lower interest rate is way worse. So for everybody sitting here thinking, Oh, you know what? The interest rate came down so that everybody can afford. No, no, they can’t. You know why? Because their HOAs cost more now this year, their insurance went up this year, their food bill still went up this year. Inflation, most recent number shows everything is grown by 3% in terms of its inflationary price and we all know that shelter is costing way more than that. The reality is unaffordability has not attracted the buyer. How do we know that? Because my friends look what it says about pending home sale
Orlando Home Sales Remain Stagnant: Buyers Still on Strike
Pendings tell us if we’re actually going to produce more sales with these lower interest rates, interest rates that are lower than last year by a significant margin. But look at this, there are fewer sales. Pending home sales are down 5.3% year over year, which is the biggest decline in nine months. You know, if you wanted to write the headline accurately, it would say interest rates are the lowest in 15 months, but buyers, there’s fewer buyers taking action than any point in nine months. So the real headline is that buyers still are out. They’re still on strike and this is the same for Orlando. So what I’m going to do, I’m actually show you some of the most recent data that has come out that I put together. So, cause I went through, I pulled all the data.
This my friends is us versus last year. Okay. So this is all of the Orlando market. How are we doing in July that just passed? Okay. Now mind you to set the presence for what you’re about to see, you have to understand what happens in July. July is the pinnacle.
It is the pinnacle celebration of the peak of the entire moving year. It’s the entire, it’s, it’s the top of the top for our marketplace. Okay. It’s when we’re just putting the cherry on top of moving season, which starts around March, goes all the way to July every single year. I’m gonna show you some incredible data on this, but take a look at this in July. We are tracing against a pathetic 2023.
You have to understand we sell probably 3,500 homes every moving season, July, something like that. We barely got over 2,500. We got barely got to 2,600 homes last year. And this year we’re almost dead flat with it.
We sold 25 more homes. 1% difference. So we were dead flat to last year. We’re not selling more homes than last year. Even lower interest rates, cash sales down 8%. That’s a problem. Your cash buyers are basically the only people who are immune to interest rates and they’re not buying more houses.
Slower Sales Challenge Orlando's Housing Market
Dollar volume was 1.4 billion last year and approximately 1.4 billion this year. The median percent of the original list price is negative 1.3, meaning sellers in 2024 are capturing 97.4% of their original asking price. This indicates they’re negotiating about 2.5% below their initial price. Keep that in mind — they’re asking 3.8% higher and then giving away another 2.5%, potentially causing a 6% swing on some inventory.
This means some people may end up selling their homes at a loss compared to last year. Imagine this happening in various markets across Orlando. In places like Osceola County, where there’s heavy FHA buying, many of those who purchased homes in the past two or three years only put 3% down.
Now, if those FHA buyers need to sell, they might not even break even compared to what they paid last year, forcing prices down. This trend won’t just impact Osceola County — you’ll likely see it in Lake, Orange, and Seminole counties as well. In these areas, many homeowners have very little equity, and homes could sell for 3% less than what they originally paid.
When the mortgage balance equals the sale price because of the low down payment, the cost to sell a home (around 4-7%) means these sellers could be bringing money to closing. Are we about to see a return of short sales? Think about it.
Now, consider what happens when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates — we’ll return to that point shortly. Median time to contract has jumped from 16 days last year to 27 days, meaning it now takes 70% longer to sell. While 27 days might not seem too bad, many homes are taking months to sell.
New pending sales are slightly up, which is a good sign. However, pending inventory is down, leaving a lot more unsold inventory. Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, pending home sales are down 5.3%. In Orlando, they’re down 6.2%, while active inventory is much higher.
Looking at the national landscape, active listings across the country are up 18%, and new listings entering the market are also up by a slight 3.4%. Unsold inventory continues to rise throughout the U.S.
Orlando's Unsold Home Inventory Skyrockets: 61% More Homes on the Market
Now, Florida and particularly Orlando is way over active. So remember the rest of the country is up 18% and how many unsold homes Orlando market up 61%. By the way, if you’ve been watching this whole time, you’re like, what does he talk about? Orlando market, Orlando metro. This is a four County area, Seminole lake, Osceola and orange. It’s a big area that if you’re in the Orlando, probably 45 minutes, any direction, an hour in any direction you’re inside of it. Okay.
This is the marketplace that it’s, it’s a governmental area, but this is how data is pulled. It’s pulled by this particular area. Obviously you can pull it in other ways, but this is an easy way to get a temperature on everything. Look at new listings, by the way, remember, I just told you that the amount of people pushing homes into the market across the country is up slightly. It’s about 3% higher than last year in Orlando. We’re up 11.6%. Let me bring all this home for you. Cause there’s some really interesting data points. I want you to see, listen to this, listen to this Orlando metro. Okay.
Interest rates are 1% lower approximately than they were a year ago, but inventory of unsold homes has changed dramatically. Listen to this. Okay. So we’re up nearly 60 to 63% more unsold homes. Where are the unsold homes? This tells us a lot about what’s changing in our economy. Look at this in the entry price.
This is really the bottom rung of buying a home. Cause the, um, the average price in Orlando is, I don’t know what it’s around 400,000. Let me take a look real quick. Where is it at? Average sale price. Oh, okay. So average is 543 for Orlando metro. The median is 448 in 2024. Okay. Okay.
That gives you an idea. If you’re looking at single family homes in three to 400, you’re under the median and you’re under the average. So, um, 70% more homes. This number you’re looking at my friends is the end of moving season.
So we’re going from March to July, where was sell-off effective and where was sell-off super slow. And there’s tons of inventory sitting around. Look at this. There is way more homes in the three to $400,000 price range than in several years. I mean, you’re talking, you have to go back four or five years to find as many homes sitting in this slice. You’re think about that.
You’re a buyer. You have the ability to buy a home at this price point, which to give you an idea at the end of last summer, there were like 900 homes available. If you were in this price point and your interest rates were higher.
Rising Inventory and Rental Growth Signal Weakness
Now we have like double that almost 2000 homes, which you got to understand across all price categories, you’re talking 8,000 properties. This is now becoming a larger segment of the marketplace. Why two things think, understand this. You have the four to $600,000 price range. More houses aren’t selling in that range are trickling down.
So they’re falling into that category is getting wider because you’re seeing slippage in the market. The other thing you’re seeing as well by our affordability, we’re seeing a massive shift in the growth of the rental pocket across the US. So the ability for people to buy a home, the rental segment is growing by triple. So people are opting for shelter under the rental side because of the savings. This is a problem.
We’re now at a point where interest rates are around low 6% range and buyers are still opting out. And this is a problem because if you can’t get people to buy your home out of the three to 400, they’re not going to move up to the four to 600.
The people in the four to six aren’t going to move up yet. Understand every time there’s a correction, the bottom falls out first. And the first signs of weakness will oftentimes present at the very bottom because that’s where recession affects people.
First, these are the people that people are buying. This particular range are the ones that get squeezed the hardest when monetary policy changes. These are the ones that squeezed the hardest whenever job layoffs happen, or they have to dip in emergency funds. This is where you see the pain first, by the way, this to me rhymes with everything else you’re seeing in the market. Starbucks is earnings are off. McDonald’s earnings are off staple, like home Depot earnings are off all these companies, by the way, you’re having subway and McDonald’s and all these companies trying to figure out how to cut their prices to lure a consumer who is busted. Exact same thing happened. Little tiny, little discounting incentives and all this kind of stuff and the low end of the marketplace found challenge
Sellers Face Tough Choices
You have the low end of the market, which is most impacted, not just by these parties being closest to the struggle, but also they are the most, this particular price segment has a lot of investor activity. Investors have pulled way out. So we have way less investor activity. When you start to see all these politicians talking about wall street, buying up real estate, that stuff is way old news. I mean, that market, the marketplace is not being bought up. Investor traffic is way down in 2024 coffee.
Everyone let’s take a look at what’s next. The four to $600,000 price range down 39%. And I would tell you, this is the lowest bracket because it’s losing inventory to this one, right? It doesn’t have as many homes in it.
Not because they’re all selling because we know they’re not, they’re moving out of the bracket. And I’ll say the same as for the million plus, look at this 61% more homes in the six to 699. And look at this 46 more homes in the one plus where interest rates aren’t a primary concern, but on the bright side, marry the house and date the rate.
The mantra has finally faded. Buyers are on strike folks. Let me show you a few more key points to this summer. Very clear evidence that we are going to see some interesting season in fall for pricing. I’m going to tell you what you need to do about it. If you’re looking to buy, you own a house now, by the way, if you own a house, I’m going to wait till the end. I’m going to, I got some really good, I got some very important things you need to understand. Look at this summer, 2024.
This is the closing volume. My friends look at this. 2023 was one of the lowest years on recorded. Like you have to go back 26 years to find how bad our sell-off was in 2023. You have to go way back. Look at this. I have 2022 here, 2019 and 2018. Look at this 2024. We were 25% less homes than pre pandemic. The pre pandemic, the norm, right? But we have as much homes as we did. Then we have a lot more.
We have as much unsold supply, every bit as much as unsold homes in Orlando. Now for the first time in a long time, it’s sitting there, but we do not have the activity. This is 13,000 homes is like, it’s like if we took the entire month of may off and didn’t sell a thing, then you’d have what we have in 2024. So if we had done that in 2019, Hey, let’s just take me off. You’d post a 13, three. So there’s way less homes, real estate professionals, mortgage professionals.They’re struggling right now. This is why look at this 2023. We sold 40.
We sold more houses last year, which is mind boggling to me. 2022, we sold 16,000 homes. Even as interest rates surged for the first time, they went from like 4%, 3% that that summer to six, they were like five to 6% range. By the end of summer, we still sold over 16,000 homes before the bottom fell out. Now look at this. This is a very, very, very important factor for you to understand months of supply is getting crazy in Florida. Look at this. This is the Orlando marketplace months of supply is the measure of, of supply and demand all at once. If you stop selling homes, you did.
If you stop listing homes, you stop putting any homes in the market. How long would it take you to sell everything that you have? Look at this 3.6 months.This is a vibe in the market that we have not felt since 2015. You have to go back to early 2015 to find this much inventory selling as slowly as is right now. This, my friends precipitates price reductions. The higher this goes, the more anxious certain sellers will get. They will set new lows at that point.
So people will then start to reduce price because this is not slowing. Okay. I will tell you the only bright side of July is this. We were at 3.5 months in June. We only went up one 10th of 1%, which is phenomenal by itself because look what the months proceeding from May to June, we went from 3.2 to 3.5 from April to May three to 3.2. I mean, we would have been leaping by two, two tents, three tents single month. So the only thing that we can say is, Hey, at least, at least July wasn’t that awful with closings. Some closings took the steam off of how much, but this is going to keep going my friends. And this isn’t good
Key Indicators to Watch
Look at here’s why here’s why look at this right here. This was the first time that months of supply, this was the end of this chaotic market right here towards the middle of 2022. The interest rates started climbing and all of a sudden the amount of inventory that wasn’t selling starts leaping off the bottom overnight. As that happens, a lot of people don’t know this, but there was this mini period of time towards the end of 2022 where we lost price. Like it was like, like people thought the end was here.
They thought this is the bubble popping. And here’s what happened in Florida between here and here between end mid, mid 2022 to the end, to the beginning of 2023, Florida as a state had lost 9% in its median sale price. Something we never see over that stretch. The Orlando market was the second strongest economy in the entire state. We weren’t anywhere near danger at this, at this down cycle, yet we still lost almost 4% in median price over the same stretch of time. Now, listen to me on this.
We find ourselves with 80% more month of supply going into the fall 2024 than we did in the fall of 2022. Hear me again. In the fall of 2022, we had an, a run up in our months of supply. So it went from like 1.1 to like two months of supply, which is still very low. We still lost almost 4% median price over a temporary stretch of like where everybody, including bank of America and leading economists and Fitch and Moody’s and everybody’s like, Oh, it’s over downgrade everything. We recover right after that.
Why we started a war. We started borrowing like a maniacs America in early 2023. We literally borrow our way out of a momentary recession, but my friends, we are now going into a very precarious position as we go into this fall. Why? Because months of supply, months of supply is the true pulse. If you have what’s called, you know how you go to the doctor and when they want to find out how you’re doing, they get blood work. But the months of supply, one of my favorite data points for the housing market, because it is your blood work of your economy.
By the way, our months of supply looks a lot better than Tampa’s and Jacksonville. So we’re still, we’re still behind Miami, but the problem is you have to watch the trends. You have to see what the trends are telling you and the trends are saying that, you know, we’ve got some changes coming. Now, let me, let me give you some final parting thoughts because you need to pay attention because you’re sitting on the side of the fence going, Oh, you know what? Elections are, there’s people in the election going to change everything. Okay.
Never has in the past, but great. Meaning, um, elections do something to housing, generally speaking. I can show you a lot of data to say it just comes and goes. Whatever happens is, is happening because the greater economy as it were. Okay.
Number two, the Fed cuts, there’s a lot of people just invested in a Fed pivot. The fact that Fed is pivoting and they’re changing, you have to understand what we expect with the Fed cuts is more homes for sale. Okay. More homes. We’re going to have more homes for sale, more months of supply price cuts right now are already 31% in Orlando, three out of 10, 31% of all homes already hit price cuts. That’s a big number. You’d say, Jared, where’s it usually 20%. You know, it’s consistently higher.
The Future of Orlando Real Estate in 2025
People are slashing prices in order to get out. We are going to see more inventory coming for multiple reasons. We just had the national association of realtors change the rules. So now what happens, you have all this inventory sitting around and buyers cannot go see the house unless they sign a buyer agreement. It’s a, it’s a rule for the realtors. It’s the way it works now.
Go look it up. You know, take my word for it. Do you think that’s going to precipitate more buyer showings or less? I don’t have a problem with it, but I’m just telling you it’s how it works.So you have the rule changes. You’re going to have, I think a big chunk of more inventory coming to the market. Why? Because we have unemployment taking up.
Unemployment is coming. It’s going to get bigger. It’s going to get deeper. It’s how it works. You don’t just start losing jobs and all of a sudden it’s like miraculously over. This is a cycle that we’re going to go through.
We There was a huge update that came out where they revised jobs by 818,000 jobs. They said we’ve created nearly a million less jobs than we’ve been telling you. Okay. And this is the way this stuff goes. They don’t, the reporting on this isn’t perfect. A lot of YouTubers will come out and be like, they’ll make this big grandstand like, Oh, you know what? They just being shady with reporting.
I mean, maybe, but maybe not like these types of reports. And I’m not on either side politically. I’m just telling you the data is imperfect. The way they do it is surveying. And it’s, you know, when they come out and make the numbers public, they usually have a lot more data that’s still not in front of them yet. So there’s just stuff that gets revised is how it works.
But here’s what it tells us. The most important thing with this jobs data, when you pull almost a million jobs economy, nobody’s surprised because we already see it. We already see the structure of the economy fading. We already have seen, you know, I see in the comments all the time, people saying, uh, my wife is X, X occupation or my husband’s X occupation. And he’s never been without a job offer. And he’s trying to get out of this one type of job into this type of job and he’s tired of it. Our commute both ways. No one is calling them back.
He’s put his resume or she’s put a resume all over the place. And so there’s, there’s hiring freezes, there’s mass layoffs, you know? So, so there’s, there’s a lot of cycling changing in the economy and everybody thinks like cuts to the interest rate as like some magical thing. It’s not, I’ve already proved it. If interest rate alone was survived the, the housing market and solve it, then you would not have a record number of brand new unsold homes with 4% interest rates not selling and you would not see a continuous, unstopped, ungrowing decline in homeownership. Renting is massive growth. I mean, so here’s the thing you have to bank for this fall season with moratorium.
Here’s the deal too. We may or may not be at one of the best times for you to sell a home. If you have to sell a home, sell it. Orlando is still at 3.6 months of supply. It is high historically, but if you have to sell, I don’t see a lot of downside in doing it as soon to now as possible, because if things don’t ricochet the other way with some magical parachute that comes from a government or a bank or something like that, this may be the best time and then if you’re a buyer, I’m not saying don’t buy. Some people never want to rent. They’re miserable renting and if you buy in this marketplace, there’s going to be opportunities for you to find a seller that you can help, that can help you get a better deal. Okay. So you don’t, you need to be putting aggressive offers in on properties that are past the regular day on market time for a given area.
You can get a deal. If you find something that everybody else is passing over, you’re going to find sellers that are sweating. You also need to pay attention to, there’s a very unique location is number one rule in real estate and I’m not going to belabor this, but you got to understand there’s certain pockets throughout the central Florida areas. Why data is so important can tell you where the motivated sellers are. Now you should pick a home in the location that best suits you, but the location you’re picking is either going to have a huge base of unsold inventory and in that case, don’t do anything dumb. Don’t over-index what you pay. Oh my gosh.
I see this happening in certain markets. So, so I’m not against buying or selling. So just make no mistake. This is not something for you to sit here and say, well, you know, I’m going to call Jared because I can steal a house at 50% of value. No, you can’t.
Now you can get a good bargain. You can buy houses at discounts in this economy. And if you have to sell a house, you can still sell. How will you, you know, will you sell it at a massive discount? Not necessarily depends on the market dynamics depends on the appeal of your house, but you can’t do this. You can’t go into this without good research. This is for the first time for a first time, a long time where there’s less emotion needs to be played here.
Do not fear of miss out by on the buy side. FOMO buying is dangerous right now. Don’t do that.Don’t just to give you an idea of that. That’s the notion where people would just come in. They would get beat all the time. They’d make an offer. They wouldn’t win. They’d go to the next one and then by the fourth contract, they weren’t putting any cognitive thought into it. Why? Because they knew the house was going to go up 15% in the next year. They just needed their name on a house.
Buyers. You’re not in that market anymore.You’re in a very flat market. So if you don’t plan to own that house for a very long time, you probably shouldn’t be buying right now. If, if you especially aren’t putting a lot of skin in the game, if you’re just, if this is a shelter cost decision for you and you hate renting, knock yourself out, get a deal, but find someone who can help you do it right and if that is, you know, my team, I would love to help you out anywhere in the country. I have a team, not just here in the central Florida market, but Florida wide and the rest of the markets as well. And you can get help data-driven buy and sell doing great things for yourself as well.
Let’s have a discussion. How’s the market that you see? If you are in the job market, what are you seeing? If your family member or someone you know, a spouse is in the job market, how is that going right now? Is there plentiful opportunities? Are they having lots of conversations? Are they winning at the interview process? Let me know. But thanks for watching.
Appreciate all the amazing support. This channel’s grown leaps and bounds over the past month and I’m gonna have some more amazing updates. This is just the start!
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